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Istanbul workshop on nuclear dangers in the Middle East
17-21/11 2005
A nuclear-weapon-free world When dear old Joseph Rotblat set a definite aim for his work - a nuclear-weapon-free world - many told him that this was impossible. A world overwhelmed by nuclear weapons could not be set free of them. Nuclear weapons could not be disinvented and there were no realism in that definite aim. Joe insisted. When we worked together many Pugwash-members in discussing ways and means to reach the aim and suddenly formulated the ideas in a book "A nuclear weapon free world" we could not foresee the success. The book led to what later became the Canberra Commission. Canberra Commission The ideas in the book caught the interest of a high politician - the prime minister of Australia, who selected 16 men (of course Joe was one of them) and one women and gave us nine months to present a realistic plan and practical steps to get rid of all nuclear weapons. And he gave us a secretariat and resources. The men in the Commission were all determined to the course and had lots of political, academic, military and diplomatic experiences. The former 4 star General Lee Butler who just recently had responsibility for all US Force and Navy nuclear deterrent forces and had seen how close the world have been to a nuclear war by mistake, was deeply involved in stopping them. (He almost stumbled on the words when he argued.) We also had influence during our work not only from scientists all over the world but also from peace movements and public opinion. We decided firstly to combat all arguments for the need of nuclear weapons one by one. And then to formulate a realistic plan and practical steps to get rid of all nuclear weapons, we were asked to do. As you already know we presented our report in 1996 with six immediate steps to be taken to reduce the risk of a nuclear war by mistake, followed by rein-forcing steps and in the end a treaty with verifications for a nuclear-weapon-free world. This was not a dream presented by idealistic peace-niks, it was a realistic way of getting rid of nuclear weapons. And it still is! When the report was ready the prime minister had lost his seat and by that we lost the strong political person who could have been a driving force in the work to get Heads of States on board and a person who took on its shoulders to bring the ideas forward. And even if the report formerly was presented to UN, no country really worked hard for it. What happened then with the Canberra Commission report? Not until the NPT conference 2000 when a determined diplomat from Ireland managed by hard work behind scene to more or less bring the Canberra Com-missions proposals into the thirteen steps to get rid of nuclear weapons. To the surprise also the nuclear weapon states adopted the document. And even if the NPT conference 2005 did not reach a consensus, the document from 2000 is still valid. In practice parts of our proposals have been taken on board by USA and Russia but not in verified and agreed treaties. Quite some of the nuclear weapons have been reduced or rather removed. In the Bush-Putin agreement strategic nuclear weapons on alert, which means ready to use immediately, should be reduced from around 6.000 on each side to from 1700 to 2200 by the year 2012. You have to keep in mind that 1700 nuclear weapons on each side are enough to delete 3.000 cities from the map of the world. And for what reason should they keep 1.700 - 2200 on alert? Many of those weapons taken off alert are not going to be destroyed, only stored so they can be put on alert again; 2.400 in some weeks time and 4.600 within three years according to Stephen Young from the Federation of American Scientist. It is not necessary to remind us of what Russia and USA has promised in the NPT-treaty; to abolish all nuclear weapons. A new doctrin On the other hand USA Nuclear Posture Review in its words is really terrifying. For the first time USA prepare itself to use nuclear weapons against seven states, of which five do not has nuclear weapons. It also includes the plan to develop a new type of nuclear weapons - bunker buster nuclear weapons - to combat Usama Bin Laden in the caves of Afganistan. These weapons are sometimes called mini-nukes but that is not true. One single bomb does not kill hundreds of thousands of human beings but probably tens of thousands. Of course development and use of such weapons is a brake against both NPT and CTBT. Middle East In Middle East we know for sure that Israel has nuclear weapons, between 100 and 200 and the possibility to deliver them, as David Krieger earlier said and that Libya now has given up its ambition to develop nuclear weapons. Irak was not in possession of any nuclear weapons; which was the argument used for the unlawful attack by USA and Great Britain. The risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons being in the hands of a president who stated that Israel should be wept out of the map, gives us cold thrills. No serious political leader in this area can dream of using nuclear weapons without receiving retaliation. So what is the reason for developing nuclear weapons? Power play? Or what some Israelies said; as long as the other side - meaning the Arabic countries - had chemical weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons are a must? What to do now? First of all - aim high! What do we want? Joe Rotblat aimed "impossibly" high on a nuclear-weapon-free world. His aim must also be ours. Thereafter develop strategies and tactics. Change the thoughts of impossibility. Leave blocked positions. A nuclear-weapon-free world is not impossible. As well as it was possible to stop weapons which governments used for hundred years and could not live without them - I am of course talking of landmines - it is possible to get a nuclear- weapon- free world. We have to involve public opinion, experts and politicians and supply them with all necessary facts and arguments. Physicians against nuclear weapons have for long provided us with facts about the effects of nuclear weapons. Canberra Commissions proposals and NPT thirteen steps are still valid. One model for such a work between public opinion, experts and politicians is the work of getting nuclear weapons declared illegal. In the beginning of the 80ths when I was in charge of the disarmament policy of my country Sean Mc Bride, the then president of International Peace Bureau, came to see me in order to get me to act for the illegality of nuclear weapons. Most of my experts in the foreign ministry told me that it was absolutely impossible. The Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme was then the first Head of State at the celebration of the 40 years of United Nations, twenty years ago, to bring up the idea of declaring nuclear weapons illegal. But nothing really happened until the beginning of the ninetieths when Lawyers against nuclear weapons lobbied in General Assembly for a resolution. I was then not any longer in charge of disarmament policy, because my government had lost in the election but however still a delegate to UN. USA immediately responded hard and even broke an unwritten law and went in to the room where countries from the third world had their meeting and threatened them that they should loose economic or military support, if supporting the resolution. Next year the preparation was successfully done by the lawyers. With substantial majority General Assembly decided to put to the International Court in the Haag the question of "use of or threat of nuclear weapons was in accordance with international law". The IC forwarded the question to its member States. Thereafter the cooperation between lawyers and politicians started. I myself had a seat in parliament and managed to get most of the political parties to sign resolutions about the illegality of nuclear weapons. When then the Foreign Affairs Committee, where I was a member, discussed the resolutions, I had all the correct law arguments from the lawyers and got the committee and than the whole parliament to declare that use of or threat of use of nuclear weapons is illegal. The conservative prime-minister Carl Bildt was forced the very last day in the last minute to transfer the Parliaments decision to the International Court. And to the big surprise for the nuclear weapon states the IC declared in the summer of 1996 that use of or threat of using nuclear weapons were not in accordance with international law. Just in time to bring it into the report of the Canberra Commission. The work of getting use of or threat of use of nuclear weapons suddenly declared illegal, was a big success. That kind of cooperation has to be used again. War and violence are choices and nothing that just happens by itself. To develop and use nuclear weapons is also a choice and can and must be stopped. We can all influence those decisions. As Martin Luther King said: The danger is not the evil of the evil man. The danger is the silence of the good man. Thank you.
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